NESO's Future Energy Scenarios 2025 sets out three credible routes to net zero by 2050. They differ in
how much the country electrifies, how much hydrogen plays a role, and how much consumers actively engage
with their own demand. They agree on one thing: nothing is achieved without acceleration.
Today's electricity demand
290TWh
annual GB consumption, 2024
FES 2050 demand range
up to 785TWh
across the three pathways
EV peak flex by 2050
51GW
more than today's gas fleet
The three pathways
Different routes, same destination
FES 2025 dropped the "Counterfactual" pathway used in 2024 and now models three credible net zero
routes. Each makes different assumptions about how Britain decarbonises heating, transport, and
industry — and therefore how much electricity the system needs to deliver, when, and from where.
Pathway 1
Holistic Transition
A balanced route. Mix of electrification and hydrogen, moderate consumer engagement, broad
deployment of all clean technologies. Used by DESNZ as the basis for the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan.
Signature: the "all-of-the-above" pathway — no single technology dominates.
Pathway 2
Electric Engagement
The deepest electrification scenario. High consumer engagement with smart tariffs and flex.
Heat pumps dominate domestic heating; EVs dominate transport. Largest electricity demand
of the three.
Hydrogen plays a much larger role — for industry, heavy transport, and some residential heating.
Lower electricity demand than Electric Engagement, but a much bigger hydrogen production and
storage system.
Signature: 98–325 TWh of hydrogen by mid-century.
Figure 01
Demand grows in every pathway. The question is by how much.
Annual GB electricity demand from 2024 to 2050 across the three pathways. All three see demand at
least double by 2050. Electric Engagement reaches the upper end at ~785 TWh — nearly three times
today's level — driven by deeper electrification of heat and transport.
Building charts
NESO Future Energy Scenarios 2025
Holistic Transition
Electric Engagement
Hydrogen Evolution
The signal in the noise
FES isn't a forecast. It's a mirror. Each pathway shows what we'd have to build and change if we
took a particular set of choices seriously — and the gap between those pathways and current build
rates is where every conversation about acceleration lives.
Figure 02
The capacity that has to arrive by 2030
FES 2025 is the first edition where 2030 is treated as the final "pipeline-based" year — the model
uses known pipelines (CP30 Action Plan, Connections Reform results) to set capacity, then optimises
from 2031 onwards. Below is the FES 2025 average view of installed capacity by 2030, against today's level.
Building charts
NESO Future Energy Scenarios 2025
Installed today
FES 2025 by 2030
Figure 03
What "acceleration" actually means
The gap between current annual build rates and the build rates implied by the FES 2025 Holistic pathway
to 2030. For some technologies the pipeline largely exists (Connections Reform Phase 1 pipeline).
For others, the rate has to roughly double or triple.
Building charts
NESO Future Energy Scenarios 2025
— That's a wrap on post five
Five posts. Five datasets. One increasingly visible grid.